Chase This Pick With Sonny Strikeouts

Looking into the Reds/Brewers starting pitcher strikeout prop bets


Graphic: Travis Jepeway/SAC.Media

Some fun prop bets can be found in both team totals and starting pitcher total strikeouts.

A team total is just the total amount of runs the team will score in the game, and starting pitcher total strikeouts is just that, how many strikeouts the starting pitcher will get in the game. These will be represented by an over/under number, or an O/U. This means you have to decide if the number will be above or below the O/U line.

Let’s get started by looking at a game featuring a couple pitchers that I have been watching for a few years now, Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers. Today’s starting pitchers are Sonny Gray of the Cincinnati Reds and Chase Anderson of the Milwaukee Brewers.

Gray, a 29 year old right handed pitcher, currently holds a 3-5 record with a 3.77 ERA and 79 strikeouts. He has eight strikeouts in his last seven innings pitched. Those innings were in an outing against the Texas Rangers, who have an average of 9.88 strikeouts per game. His last outing against Milwaukee was on May 21, where he pitched six innings with five hits and no runs. He got nine strikeouts while using 103 pitches.

Anderson, a 31 year old right handed pitcher, currently holds a 3-1 record with a 4.05 ERA and 49 strikeouts. He has yet to face Cincinnati this season, however, last season he faced them four times. In his four outings against the Reds last season he pitched 21 innings while giving up 16 hits and 10 runs. He struck out 20, giving him an average of five strikeouts per game. The lowest number of strikeouts in an outing was four.

Cincinnati currently holds a 0.270 team batting average in the last three games, while Milwaukee holds a 0.194 batting average. This strongly reflects in the last 10 records where the Reds are 7-3 and the Brewers are 3-7. The Reds are actually averaging nine strikeouts per game in the last three, where the Reds average six.

The current lines are showing both the Reds and Brewers team totals at 4.5 runs.

The Reds have averaged 4.29 runs per game, 5.6 in the last five and 3.87 on the road. The Brewers have averaged 4.93 runs per game, 2.8 in the last five and 5.03 at home. Gray’s total strikeouts are set at 5.5, and Anderson’s at 4.5.

This season Milwaukee has an average of 9.49 strikeouts per game, 6.33 in the last three games and 9.19 at home. The Reds are averaging 8.74 strikeouts per game, 9.00 in the last three games and 8.54 on the road.

Looking at the numbers, it may be worth it to go with either pitcher’s strikeout totals.

I like Sonny Gray a little bit more in this case with his total at 5.5 strikeouts. After all, he averages 6.2 strikeouts in his last five games while Anderson has only 3.6 per game in his last five.

Gray also has 36 strikeouts in 33.2 innings pitched on the road and 44 strikeouts in 38.1 innings pitched at night. Anderson has 31 strikeouts in 25.1 innings pitched at home and 37 strikeouts in 34 innings pitched at night.

So there it is, a breakdown of some strikeout prop bets for today’s game at Miller Park.

Both the strikeout totals are tempting in their own way, but I want to narrow it down to just one. So, if I had to choose, I’m going with Sonny Gray total strikeouts over 5.5, and recommend you look into it as well.

Game starts at 5:10 PST, so get those bets in before then. Best of luck!